For twenty years, the pitch for high-volume, low-price (HVLP) gyms, one of several established gym business models, was simple: charge $10 to $25 a month, serve thousands of members per location, and keep operating costs below recurring membership income. Planet Fitness ended 2025 with 2,896 clubs worldwide. William Blair’s 2025 analysis estimated its share at roughly 27% of US gym memberships. In May 2026, its own stock fell more than 60% in a single year, and the company quietly cut its growth guidance. That’s not a company failing. It’s a mature model running into the edges of its own success, and it raises a genuine question for anyone building or running a budget gym right now: does this model still have room to grow, and if so, growing how?
The short answer: yes, but not the same way it did before
Three separate forces are shaping where HVLP goes from here, and they point in different directions depending on the market you’re in. Slower same-club sales and investor concerns raise questions about saturation in mature US markets. PwC identifies expansion potential in the UK, while William Blair’s US analysis highlights states that are less densely served. Some operators are adding amenities alongside new locations to compete on value as well as price, an approach the trade press calls HVLP 3.0.
How big the model already got
Planet Fitness alone now carries 20.8 million members worldwide and $1.325 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue, with corporate-owned clubs running four-wall EBITDA margins of 37.8%, among the highest in retail or hospitality of any kind. Franchisee unit economics have historically supported unlevered cash-on-cash returns exceeding 25% by year two, with payback periods of roughly three to four years on an initial investment of $1.5 million to $5.1 million, figures compiled by commercial real estate research firm MMCG Invest from the brand’s own disclosures.
That scale is exactly why the saturation question matters. A model built to work at 2,896 locations behaves very differently from one still proving itself at 200.
The saturation signal nobody can wave away
In 2026, Planet Fitness cut its full-year same-club sales growth forecast from 4-5% to approximately 1%. It retained that forecast in August. The linked investor analysis reported a 62.9% year-to-date loss as of 30 September 2026. Per Simply Wall St’s investor analysis, the disagreement wasn’t really about whether the brand was in trouble; it was about whether membership growth and pricing power could keep rising together once “easier online cancellations lifting churn and US club saturation pressuring margins” entered the picture at the same time.
And Planet Fitness isn’t growing into empty space. Crunch Fitness grew its club count by 17% in 2024, and Eos Fitness grew by 27%, both well-funded and still expanding in many of the same metro areas. More competition for the same price-sensitive member base, in the same mature cities, is a structurally different growth environment than the one HVLP operators faced a decade ago.
Where the real headroom still is
The saturation story looks different once you leave the most mature US metros. A PwC analysis of the UK found 884 HVLP clubs operating as of January 2026, up from 489 in 2018, with membership growing from 2.2 million to 3.5 million and total market value more than doubling to roughly £1.14 billion. PwC estimates UK market potential at 1,500 to 1,750 locations, or roughly 600 to 850 additional clubs beyond its 2026 baseline. HVLP clubs currently represent about 17% of UK private-sector clubs but 42% of private gym members, evidence that demand is still concentrating into this format rather than drifting away from it.
The pattern is consistent: HVLP growth isn’t disappearing; it’s relocating to markets that haven’t yet reached US-level density, while mature US metros shift from a unit-growth story to a same-store story.
HVLP 3.0: growing sideways instead of just outward
The trade press has a name for what the strongest operators are doing instead of chasing raw unit growth: HVLP 3.0, adding just enough beyond bare access to defend the price point rather than abandoning it. Per Health & Fitness Business, “fitness is no longer episodic; it’s habitual and integrated into daily life,” and the operators adapting fastest are layering community, technology, and data-driven personalization on top of their existing low price rather than raising it outright.
The specific moves are already visible across the segment. VASA Fitness announced a $30 million reinvestment in equipment and amenities, including $10 million to expand its studio programs. EōS is scaling a premium “Lux” banner with saunas and smart strength circuits in Los Angeles. Crunch Fitness and Snap Fitness UK are adding contrast therapy and reformer Pilates classes to selected locations. Planet Fitness has leaned more heavily into Black Card member perks rather than raising its $15 Classic Card price. None of this looks like a retreat from the budget positioning. It looks like operators finding out how much they can add before the “low price” part of the model stops meaning anything.
This creates real pressure in the middle of the market. Brands sitting between true budget and true boutique, without a clear identity in either direction, are the ones losing ground as HVLP operators add amenities from below and boutique studios add volume-friendly pricing from above.
| Brand | Entry price point | Recent growth signal | Strategic move |
| Planet Fitness | $15/mo Classic Card | May 2026 guidance cut from 4–5% to approximately 1% same-club sales growth. | Leaning on Black Card upsell over price hikes |
| Crunch Fitness | Varies by market | 17% club growth in 2024 | Layering amenities at select locations |
| EōS Fitness | $9.99/mo entry tier | 27% club growth in 2024 | Scaling a premium “Lux” banner alongside the core brand |
| VASA Fitness | Low-cost entry tier | $30M reinvestment announced in 2025; $10M for studio programs | Adding boutique-style classes inside existing clubs |
Planet Fitness’s slowing same-club growth sits next to two rivals still expanding their club counts by double digits, a sign that the pressure on mature-market HVLP operators is coming as much from each other as from any outside threat.
The GLP-1 wildcard and what different studies measure
No factor shaping HVLP’s next five years is less settled than GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, and anyone claiming certainty here is overstating what’s actually known. A membership survey and an activity study raise different questions because they measure different outcomes in different groups.
A William Blair survey of 300 GLP-1 users found gym membership among that group rose to 35%, up from 24% the year before, with the under-45 group jumping from 43% to nearly 62%. Respondents cited increased motivation and energy as reasons for exercising more.
Set against that, a study presented at the Endocrine Society’s 2026 annual meeting, using objective Fitbit data from 753 participants in the NIH’s All of Us Research Program, found the opposite: average daily steps fell from 5,047 to 4,487 after starting a GLP-1 medication, and moderate-to-vigorous activity minutes dropped from 28 to 22 per day, with no sign that activity increased afterward.
Both findings can be true at once. Gym membership may increase even when overall daily physical activity declines. However, neither finding establishes whether GLP-1 users are attending gyms more or less frequently. This matters enormously for a model built around charging many people a small amount and counting on most of them not showing up often. If GLP-1 adoption keeps growing, HVLP operators may be watching the wrong metric if they’re only tracking membership counts instead of actual usage patterns.
Signs a budget-gym market is approaching saturation
- Same-club sales guidance from major chains is being cut rather than raised, as Planet Fitness did in 2026.
- Two or more well-funded HVLP brands are expanding into the same metro within the same year.
- Member acquisition increasingly comes from switching between budget chains rather than from first-time gym joiners.
- Local HVLP pricing has stayed flat for several years despite rising real estate and labor costs.
- Premium add-ons (Black Card-style tiers, add-on classes) are growing faster than core membership counts.
If you’re building or running a budget gym from here
- Track actual visit frequency per member, not just membership counts, especially as GLP-1 adoption grows in your area.
- Model your price point against local HVLP density, not just national averages, before assuming there’s room for another location.
- Pick one or two HVLP 3.0 additions that fit your space and budget rather than trying to match every competitor’s amenity list.
- Watch same-club sales trends at the major public operators as an early signal for your own local market, not just your own numbers.
- Match staffing to usage, services, and member-support needs. Automate routine entry and billing tasks to control costs.
Where Wellyx fits
The HVLP model’s entire financial logic depends on serving a large membership with minimal on-site staff, which makes 24/7 access control less of a convenience feature and more of the mechanism that makes the price point possible. Wellyx’s access control supports NFC card, key fob, and mobile QR entry with automated check-in logging that reduces the need for staff to manually manage member entry, runs in offline mode during internet outages so entry doesn’t stop working overnight, and automatically blocks access for failed payments, which matters at membership volumes where a human checking every account manually isn’t realistic.
The same automation logic extends to billing at scale: configurable retry logic on failed recurring payments and automated dunning sequences catch the kind of quiet revenue leakage that a high-volume, thin-margin-per-member model can’t absorb the way a boutique studio with fewer, higher-paying members can.
Frequently asked questions
Is the HVLP gym model dying?
No. Planet Fitness still holds 27% of all US gym memberships, and PwC’s modeling shows real unit-growth headroom in markets like the UK. What’s changing is where growth comes from: mature US metros are shifting from adding locations to defending same-store sales, while less-saturated markets still show real room for expansion.
Why did Planet Fitness’s stock fall so much in 2026?
In May 2026, Planet Fitness lowered its same-club sales growth forecast from 4–5% to about 1%, citing slower net membership growth and a pause in the Black Card price increase. Its shares fell sharply after the announcement. The guidance change does not, by itself, prove that US budget-gym markets are saturated.
What is HVLP 3.0?
It’s the trade-press term for budget gyms adding community features, technology, and selective premium amenities like reformer classes or contrast therapy on top of their existing low price, rather than raising prices outright. The goal is defending the value positioning while competing on more than price alone.
Do GLP-1 weight-loss drugs help or hurt gym memberships?
The data currently disagree with itself. A self-reported survey found that GLP-1 users joined gyms at higher rates, while an objective, wearable-tracked study found that their overall daily activity actually declined. Both findings can be true simultaneously if people are joining but attending less, which is a meaningful risk for a volume-dependent model.
Should a new operator still open an HVLP gym in 2026?
Local market density is one factor, alongside demand, operating costs and cash reserves. Markets already saturated with budget chains favor differentiation through HVLP 3.0-style amenities over pure price competition, while less-saturated regions, including much of the UK per PwC’s modeling, still show real room for straightforward expansion.
The bottom line
The HVLP model isn’t running out of road, but it is running out of the easy version of growth it relied on for two decades. The next chapter belongs to operators who track real usage instead of just membership counts, add just enough to defend their price point without abandoning it, and read local saturation signals before assuming the last decade’s playbook still applies to the next one.
To see how automated access control and billing support a high-volume, low-staff operation, book a demo.
